If China is to the electric car industry, this industry every important stakeholder, including government, car manufacturers, spare parts suppliers and infrastructure operators should consider to take different strategy. This report to more than 30 by industry experts and policy makers the in-depth interviews, and analyses the if China wants in the electric car in a world leader in innovation, the parties should consider how to take action.
Although initial development stage there exist many challenges and difficulties, China still should be insisted on long-term development of electric vehicle industry. Development of the electric car for China to deal with increasingly severe energy safety and pollution is very important. At the same time, because of China's internal combustion engine technology in cars lags behind the U.S. and Japan and other developed countries, the electric car in China and also global car manufacturers in this and other global market competition provides an important opportunity.
To the pure electric vehicle road no short cuts. Has not yet mature battery technology, lagging behind the supply chain and a lack of infrastructure standard is only China electric vehicle industry development in part of the many obstacles. Our study shows that, in the future from the pure electric vehicle before leading, plug-in hybrid cars can be regarded as the transition of the short-term solution.
Chinese electric cars may be increased program electric car.tricycle adult Our research shows that the electric vehicle program (namely tandem plug-in hybrid cars)-built-in small internal combustion engines to drive in the process for battery electric vehicle charging constantly,tricycle baby trikes may be lagging in China of automotive industry speaking is cheaper, more easily implemented.
Electric cars will be in the field of public service in the first been applied. In New York, Tokyo, Berlin and Paris, the electric car early buyers usually very similar: technology fan or pay attention to environmental protection of consumers. However, in China, the two types of user group is unlikely to become to promote the popularization of the electric car mainstream. And more likely to become early buyers is a clear understanding of the electric car total life cycle cost of the public transport operators. They will promote the value chain participants progress, and then formed for the future of extensive consumer market lay the foundation.
China's current situation electric vehicle industry
One hundred years ago, when the curtain has just opened the age of the automobile, the electric car is considered more reliable than internal combustion engine car, safety and easy to control.used adult tricycles But for many years, to introduce the technology and industrialization of all kinds of efforts nearly ended in failure.
The only exception is ordinary hybrid cars: introduced in 1999 to now, ordinary hybrid cars has different degree of market growth, but the electric car market not getting the whole similar success.
The electric car how to meet demand in China face of China's current and future development of possible opportunities and challenges, the electric car has become more and more attractive: energy security. According to the current forecast, 2020 years of Chinese oil consumption in 2010 based on the growth of about 70% to when 16% of the total global crude oil demand. Because domestic production ability is limited, most of the growth will depend on imports, and China will more and more face global crude oil supply fluctuation of the risk. If China and the United States reached the same car ownership, its crude oil demand will more than global crude oil production (figure 1). And electric cars can effectively reduce oil consumption, so as to enhance China's energy security.
Reduce the emissions
China is already the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gasestricycle for 3 year old, and 2020 Chinese road traffic carbon emissions to the global road traffic may account for a quarter of the total carbon emissions. Electric cars can reduce carbon emissions, expected in 2030, pure electric vehicle will be better than the internal combustion engine car carbon emissions reduced about 40%.
The electric car will also help China to solve serious problem of air pollution. Figure 2 shows, and use of the internal combustion engine than gasoline car, plug-in hybrid car can reduce carbon monoxide emissions 75%, reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides of 40%. Pure electric cars are more significant effect, can reduce carbon monoxide emissions up to 99%, and may reduce the about half of the nitrogen oxide pollution.
From the life cycle cost point of view, as oil prices and the electric car accessories costs continue to decline, the electric car and the cost of internal combustion engine car gap is gradually narrowing. Our analysis shows that, by 2020, the electric car battery highest cost can reduce by 60%, and the price of the electric car is easier to ordinary consumers.
More consumer choice
With the global car companies committed to electric cars, design, leading technology of good vehicles will emerge. The electric car investment development dynamics unprecedented, car designs development will meet all the needs of users.
To reduce dependence on infrastructure
Pure electric cars need a lot of infrastructure, and ordinary hybrid cars and plug-in hybrid cars don't need it, so can be pure electric cars to internal combustion engine car of the development of the technology transfer. The developed market experience shows that ordinary hybrid cars driving performance and internal combustion engine car are almost the same, and more fuel efficient. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will for owners to provide more charging flexibility, can be convenient to use standard power socket charging, still can be in no infrastructure in internal combustion engine for batteries.
Other considerations
There are other factors make the electric car for Chinese consumers, auto makers and spare parts suppliers more attractive. At present, most Chinese cities have millions of electronic bicycle and electric motorcycle users, Chinese consumers may be better than any other country consumers to know more about the advantages of the electric car. This is helpful to solve the low awareness and don't understand the electric car advantages.
From the car industry development point, although China automobile manufacturers are not likely in internal combustion engine technology soon more than a leading global car companies, but have the potential in the electric car market do this, because most of the global manufacturers in the electric car technology are in roughly the same starting point.
Alternative fuel the car also have the advantage of electric cars,children cars supplier but compared with the electric car, they are limited and advantage more difficult to put into practice. For example compressed natural gas car can reduce oil consumption, but did not significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions (but significantly increased the methane emissions) and air pollution (such as the nitrogen oxide emissions). Compressed natural gas station, the cost of construction high, especially large gas reservoir and the inflation rate higher LPG stations. china baby tricycleSome biofuels although contribute to the solution of energy security and air pollution, but use these fuel needs more complex fuel engine technology. China's manufacturers and spare parts suppliers in the technology to accumulate relatively weak, and may be at a competitive disadvantage.